Trend analyses of TIMSS 2015 and 2019: school factors related to declining performance in mathematics

Abstract Gaining knowledge of what contextual factors may contribute to changes in student achievement across cycles international large-scale assessments (ILSA), is important for educational policy and practice. Addressing this necessitates advanced methodology that utilizes the trend design ILSAs. The Trends International Mathematics Science Study (TIMSS) data suitable such analyses as it measures students’ competence based on participating countries curricula. In Norway, performance mathematics decreased from 2015 2019 evidenced by TIMSS. During time-period, there are indications also school climate, motivation self-concept decreased. This study investigates whether climate (including bullying, a safe environment, emphasis academic success, sense belonging well-being), interest-enjoyment utility value), declined 2019, possible decline related Norway. present utilized approach with mediation structural equation modelling. results showed value subject during period, environment mediated TIMSS 2019. Hence, declines were associated declining achievements. While cannot prove causal relation, discussed could indicate these predictors explain achievement. usefulness methodological other countries, well implications policy, practice, research discussed.